CALCULATING RACE NEEDS

(December, 2024)

How do new and old events determine how many shirts, medals, toilets, refreshments, and other items to order? Event directors don’t want to run out, but they also don’t want to waste money. Some events have developed some basic equations, while for some “seat of the pants” decisions are the norm. What happens – and what are the costs – if you miscalculate?

IT’S A NUMBERS GAME!

  • There are four key numbers in our races:
    • # of official entrants.
    • # of bib/packet pickups.
    • # of starters in the race.
    • # of finishers in the race.
  • It’s critical to somehow be able to estimate early on what these numbers will end up being.  How do we do that?
  • For first year events, this is next to impossible. 
  • Each one of these numbers has an impact on different areas of our race as well as the different items we need to calculate and order.
  • Entrants impact the number of bib numbers and bib tags.  This is obviously your largest number.  If you are using dynamic bib assignments, you might be able to get away with ordering less bibs and tags if you can estimate the amount of no shows accurately. 
  • Bib and t-shirt/packet pickups impact mostly t-shirts we need to order.  Many times runners will pick up their number but still not show up on race day or run.  Based on historical or average no show rates, you can choose the option of ordering t-shirts and other giveaway items based on this number, but it can be risky if your no show rate significantly decreases for some reason.  On average no show rates can be between 8% and 30%.   Many times it depends on whether a race sells out or not and how far in advance runners sign up for the race.
  • Starters in the race impacts space needed to line everyone up properly and if wave or pulse start will be necessary, the amount of time needed for everyone to clear the starting line, the amount of port-o-johns needed among other things. 
  • Finishers mainly impacts the number of medals needed and amount of refreshments/food/water needed. 

GENERAL COMMENTS AND TIPS

  • Sell outs – certainly races that sell out quickly and reach a field size limit have it much easier than those that don’t as they know exactly how many entrants to plan for.  When you have runners registering right up until race day, including race day, the final number just becomes an educated guess which is always risky.   It’s not good to order too much nor is it good to order too little
  • T-shirts – does every race have to give out t-shirts?  Gender, sizing and amount of each becomes one of our biggest challenges.  If you give away something like mugs to everyone, then you don’t have to be concerned about either of those.   However, we all know that t-shirts still seem to remain the preferred “swag/giveaway” item and it also one of our most important marketing items for sponsors to screen their name and logo on. 
  • Race date – how critical and important is it to put the race date on shirts and medals?  If not and you have leftovers, can you save them for the next year.  If the shirts have sponsors on them, then that could have an impact as sponsors do change from year-to-year.  If you don’t date the shirts and the sponsors and shirt design don’t change from year-to-year then you can save left over shirt for the following year…same with medals.
  • Leftovers – we should always have a plan for any leftovers at the end of the race whether it be water, food, shirts, medals or other giveaways items.   Who takes them, in what vehicle(s), where do they go and what eventually happens with them.  
  • Guarantees – one way to somewhat cover yourself a bit with swag like t-shirts is to say in your marketing material and on your application that “shirts are guaranteed only for the first “X” number of runners to register.   Now you have to do a good job keeping track of exactly who these people are so they are assured of getting a shirt.  This helps drive earlier registration, too.   One downside is if the runner knows the first “X” has already registered then that could discourage them from registering at all. 
  • Pay more, receive less – when I race does put limits for example on the number of shirts they will guarantee or other items, it is interesting to note that some also increase their entry fees on race week or race day while knowing that these runners will actually end up paying more btu receiving less…but it happens. 
  • Bibs – if you run out of bibs, do you have to shut the race off or will the timing company have extra generic bibs and tags you could use?
  • Field size limits – some races self-impose field size limits based on a lot of different factors – again, space and time being two of the most important factors.  It also helps to plan when ordering “stuff”.   Whether through greed or ignorance, many races just allow registration to remain open right up through race day and this can severely backfire when it comes to quality of event, resources to management the event, running out of items, etc. 
  • Entry fee increases and cut off dates – drives earlier registrations which helps you plan better and project more accurately. 
  • Data – it’s so important to keep registration data from year-to-year so as to understand better the trends in registration for your event. 

ROAD RACE FORMULAS

I receive a lot of emails from event directors asking me if I have any “magic formulas” when calculating “how much” of a particular product is needed or equipment or having to do with the race budget or administration of the race.   I always respond by given a strong disclaimer that whereas I am happy to offer some advice in this regard, what I am suggesting is not necessarily an industry standard but is just “Dave’s Formula” based on my own personal view of things and experience during the past 40 years in the business.  In many cases, there is no right or wrong, just personal preferences.

Additionally, with every formula, there can and should be lots of conditions and parameters included because many times “one size does not fit all.”   For this presentation, I have limited my recommendations to races of distances between 5K and 10K and if longer, I have indicated that, again, all with the caveat that I know everything is conditional and dependent on the unique circumstances each race is faced with.  

  • How many portable restrooms do I order for my race?

FORMULA – at the start, most go with 1 unit per 100 participants.  If you have more than 50% women, then go with 1 unit per 75.  And, if you want to be a real hero and can afford it and have the space, go with 1 unit per 50 participants.  Races that do not provide enough units are one of my biggest pet peeves in this industry.  All that does is create long lines and anxious runners and even encourages them to “go elsewhere” which makes no sense.  Of course, this formula changes when ordering units for the course and at the finish line.  I guess you can always say you can never have enough port-o-johns (or whatever your area of the country calls them!).  I want to put on a POJ race…explain. 

  • Ratio of sponsorship income to entry fee income?

FORMULA – I’ve always felt that in small or mid-size races (1,000 to 5,000), if you could secure as much in cash sponsorship as you get in entry fee revenue, you have a very healthy event.  If it is closer to a 50% ratio, you are still doing well.   If you have virtually no cash sponsors, then you probably are at financial risk and really need to be careful how you spend your hard-earned entry fee only revenue.  Of course, receiving “budget-relieving in-kind” sponsorship can be just as valuable as the cash itself. 

  • What is the typical no-show rate for volunteers?

FORMULA – Of course it depends on the event as well as the weather along with other factors such as what they may receive in return.  Getting a Boston Marathon jacket almost guarantees that a volunteer is going to show up!  However, the average volunteer no-show rate seems to be between 3% and 8% so it is always best to recruit at least this many more than you absolutely need on race day.  Once someone commits to volunteer, it does seem like the majority of them do show up which is impressive. 

  • What is the typical no-show rate for participants?

FORMULA – I have found that one of the biggest factors impacting the no-show rate for participants is when (the date) they actually registered for the race.   If it is more than three or four months in advance, then the no-show rate can be as high as 20%-25%.   Certainly, if the race sells out fast, perhaps in a day or two causing people to register right away even if they are not totally sure they will be racing, the no-show rate is higher.   However, on average across the board, we have seen the no-show rates being between 8% and 15% across all races.  

  • How much space do I need at the start line to line up all my runners?

FORMULA – I typically use 3 square feet per person.  Not a perfect science.  Some use 4 square feet to load and give runners more space to stretch and warm up a little.  When the system “collapses”, that is, right before the gun fires and people pack together, it probably then reduces to closer to 2 to 2 ½ square feet per person.  When designing a corral system, I’ll measure or step off about 3,000 square feet for 1,000 runners.  It is critical to be sure before you start lining up your runners that you indeed have enough space to accommodate everyone you need to.

  • How large does a race need to be to make a profit to either keep or contribute to a charity?

FORMULA – only your budget can truly answer this one.  Before you make a commitment to give money to a charity, you first have to determine exactly where this money is coming from.  Percentage of sponsor fees or entry fees?  Net proceeds?  Fundraising by participants?  Suffice to say, the more you get in cash sponsorship and the more entrants you have in your race then the greater chance you will have “proceeds” to pass along to your beneficiary.  It all comes down to simple math.  However, I would think any race under 300 runners would not generate much in terms of a charitable contribution.  Once you get over 1,000 runners, then if you plan and organize properly, you should be able to make a reasonable contribution after all the bills are paid.

  • How much water and cups do I need for my race?

FORMULA – of course, this will all depend on the distance of the race, how many participants and, most importantly, the weather conditions and temperature.  My feeling is that no race should ever run out of water.   Again, like the above, it is simple math.  You can get real sophisticated with this or just use a simple formula.  Under pleasant conditions, I would plan for 1 ½ cups of water per person per water station.   Under more severe conditions, I would plan for at least 2 cups of water per person.   As we all know, runners both drink the water and pour it over their head and face to cool down in hot conditions.  We all know there are many more factors involved such as how much water is placed in the cups, how many water stations are placed along the course, access by all the runners to each station, how many volunteers working the station and ability to keep pace with the density of runners, etc., etc.

  • How many medals should I order for my race?

FORMULA – as discussed above, this should be the smallest number of items ordered since it is best on finishers only.  The key on this one is definitely not to run out.   Medals can cost anywhere between say $2.50 each and maybe $6.00 depending on size, material, number of medals ordered, complexity of the medal.  Either way, don’t underestimate on this one!   If you have to date the medal, maybe you do that on the ribbon so if you have medals left over one year, you can save them for the following year and just re-order the ribbons.  You can always order extra generic medals to distribute if you run out and then mail current medal later after re-ordering. 

  • How many bib numbers should I have printed in advance?

FORMULA – bib numbers don’t cost too much per number, maybe $0.25 to $0.35 per bib.   So, you can’t go too wrong if you order too many.  Of course, like any of the items above, it your race fills up and you know the exact number of entrants then you can order that many bibs plus maybe 10% more.   As for bib tags, with those, you usually only get charged for what you use, not what was ordered.  You can usually return the unused tags. 

  • How much food / refreshments do I need for my race?

FORMULA – as for finish line food / snacks, I always like to have between three and five different choices, so ideally four, perhaps fruit, bagel, granola and even cookie or chips.  As for drink, ideally two choices, water and electrolyte solution (Gatorade, Powerade, Ultima, etc.).  As for quantity of each, ideally one unit per person so you hopefully don’t run out especially if some people take more than their fair share.  I wouldn’t go with much less than 75% to 80% of the anticipated number of finishers.  No good deed goes unpunished when you run out of a product that most but not all receive.  Some races also pre-bag the product and hand out the bag so no one ends up taking more than their fair share, however, this also means runners are receiving product they would normally not take on their own.   Of course, if you have enough volunteers handing out the product so there are no long lanes, that could be the best system. 

  • What size t-shirts do I order and how many?

FORMULA – if you are able to capture this data when runners register for the race and still have enough time to order your shirts, then that is the best case.  Only problem here is that if a runner selects a size, they are expecting to receive that size because that is what they “ordered”.   Also, sometimes the product is not always “true” to size.  For example, a medium might be huge so now the runner wants a small.   Most of us have to order the shirts well in advance and before everyone has registered so we have to “guess” at what those final numbers might look like.   And, if you are committed to ordering both male and female shirts, then the guessing game becomes even more challenging.  If your race has been around for a number of years, you have data you can refer to but if your event is new or just a few years old, there isn’t much data to go on.  It’s not a perfect science but for me, I have been fairly successful with these percentages for the competitor shirts:

Male:  S – 15%; M – 30%; L – 35%; XL – 15%; XXL – 5%

Female:  S – 25%; M – 40%; L – 25%; XL – 10%

  • How many police is enough for my race?

FORMULA – this is always a challenging one because the local police may request or worse require many more police than you feel is necessary or can afford!  The key here is to have a GREAT relationship with your local public safety officials first.  Redeploying some officials around the race course is also an option sometimes but the timing has to be perfect as you don’t want to leave an active post unmanned.  The number of police is more a function of your course than it is the number of runners in the race although there are many variable that can impact how many officers will be needed.  A good rule of thumb could be 5 officers per mile.  So, if you had a 5K, you might need a maximum of 15 officers.  At a 4-hour minimum and a rate of $50/hour, that would cost you $3,000.  If a course is a double loop, then you could possibly cut that in half.  Again, these are just “round” numbers.

  • How much can I expect my runners to raise for charity?  Per runner average or percentage of runners raising money?

FORMULA – it all depends on the charity and it depends on whether the purpose of the race is to raise money or if it first is just a race for the community with a charitable component.   On average, I would think only 10% or so of the runners in a race would raise pledges for a charity.   And, maybe the average amount per runner would be about $150.  Thus, if you had a 2,000 person race, then 200 would raise $150 which would equal $30,000 which would equal $15 per runner in your race.  Again, this is for a non-marathon race.

  • What percentage of runners should we expect to see in our medical tents?  Transports? 

FORMULA – of course the percentage of runners expected to be seen in our medical tents is much higher for marathons then say a 5K road race.  The longer and harder the event, the more casualties you will most likely see.  Another factor, believe it or not, has to do with how many medical stations, medical facilities and medical personnel you have and how many runners can be accommodated based on severity of injury.  Regarding the marathon distance, an average percentage seen by medical personnel could be in the area of 3%.   A tough day could generate 5% and a really bad day (say temperatures in the mid-80 degrees) up to 8%.   Transports are all based on what you have for medical resources at the race itself but if bad conditions you could have as many as 1 for every 500-1,000 runners.

So, if you had 5,000 runners, then 3% gives you 150, 5% gives you 250 and 8% gives you 400.  For distances less than a marathon, these percentage could be proportionally decreased, that is, cut by 50% for a half marathon and by 75% for a 10K or 5K.

  • What is percentage of race day registrations for races that allow it?

FORMULA – for races that allow runners to register on race day, the expectations for new registrations can be tricky.  Variables include the distance of the race, the race day entry fee, weather, how much promotion and marketing was done prior to the race, how long the race has been in existence, when the race opened registration.  All that being said, an average number of race registrations could be in the 10%-20%.   So, if you had 1,000 registrants going into race day, you might see an addition 100 to 200 to sign up on race day.

In conclusion…not having enough of something is definitely worse than having too much.  However, if something costs you money though, you are probably throwing away good, hard earned race revenue if you order way too much.  Every event is different, too, so having a good handle on your particular race and what the trends have been will certainly help guide you to be more accurate, frugal and more efficient in the future. 

by Dave McGillivray